การวิเคราะห์การใช้พลังงานในภาคอุตสาหกรรม และธุรกิจการค้าของประเทศไทย โดยเทคนิคการสลายเชิงแจกแจง

Abstract

The purpose of this independent study were analysis of the factors affecting to change in the energy industry and commercial in Thailand was analyzed using Decomposition technique LMDI I index. They are factors that affect energy use three factor were the activity effect, the structure effect and the intensity effect. A data was selected from final energy consumption over the last 25 years, from B.E. 2533 to 2557, divided into four study periods based on economic structure and the National Energy Conservation law; i.e. (i) The first sub-period from B.E. 2533 to 2540 which presents the high economic progress of the country before The National Energy Conservation law B.E. 2535, (ii) The second sub-period from B.E. 2540 to 2550, during the effect of the law and the period of economic slowdown after the crises. (iii) The third transition period of the law from B.E. 2550 to 2553 from first to second version and the global economic slowdown, and (iv) The last sub-period from B.E. 2553 to 2557, during the effect of the law (No.2) and the political crisis in the Thai economy. The findings showed Thai economic sectors, the impact of structure effect over the intensity effect. During the first sub-period was the most changed by structure effect and the intensity effect because of changes from the structure of agriculture sector to industrial sector and rate of energy consumption of construction sector declined sharply. Resulting in an inefficient of energy use during this period. However the last sub-period was the most impacts in overall energy consumption changed by structure effect and the intensity effect from the reduction of the energy industry such as non-metallic sub-sector cement products. The impact of the activity effect due to the increase in the gross domestic product of industrial food and beverages sub-sector. It can be predicted that the trends of increasing energy efficiency from non-metallic sub-sector primarily in the next period. It was found that commercial sector, the impact of the structure effect over the intensity effect increased by the share of the gross domestic product, thus reducing the intensity effect down. As well as the increase of the gross domestic product due to the hotel sub-sector. It can be predicted that the trends of the energy efficiency of the trade increase next year as well. Moreover it also concluded that although the optimization of the energy sector of the country is difficult. However, the energy conservation law, with a concentration of high energy-intensive products such as cement of non-metallic sub-sector even more strictly. The sanctions clearly can contribute to energy efficiency and sustainable future.