การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบของการเปลี่ยนแปลงภาษีมูลค่าเพิ่มที่มีต่อระบบเศรษฐกิจของประเทศไทยโดยใช้แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the direct effect, indirect effect, and induce effect on output, income, and employment rate by using a multiplier model, if government expenditure was increased by changes in the indirect tax policy (Value Added Tax) from 7% to 10%, and to examine the forward and backward linkage of the manufacturing sector. To examine the effect of output, income, and employment rate the scenario was created in which the margin of government revenue was assumed to be equal to government expenditure to 16 manufacturing sectors on the Input – Output Model. The result of this study shows that when the government increases their expenditure to 16 manufacturing sectors, the output of 3 sectors most effected are Services, Rubber Chemical and Petroleum Industries and Public Utilities. For income effect, the sectors were effected the most are the same as output effect. The 3 sectors which have the most employment effect are Services, Other Manufacturing Transportation, and Communication The result of forward and backward linkage analysis are as followed; the highest value of forward linkage index are from Metal Products and Machinery, Rubber Chemical, and Petroleum Industries. And the highest value of backward linkage index are from Metal Products and Machinery, Other Manufacturing, and Unclassified. From the result of this study, policy makers can use the information from this study to decide and plan to support 16 types of manufacturing from the effect of the increasing of final demand or expenditure such as making a policy rule to support the increase of output, promoting saving by issuing government bonds and importing labor from foreign countries to support the increase of employment rate.