การศึกษาความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างการค้าชายแดนด่านศุลกากรแม่สอดกับปริมาณเงินฝากของธนาคารพาณิชย์และการลงทุนของภาคเอกชนในจังหวัดตาก

Abstract

The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between border trade through Mae Sot Customs House and the volume of deposit at local commercial banks and private investment in Tak province. The variables are border trade at Mae Sot Customs House, fixed deposit and credit loan of commercial banks in Tak province by using data from October, 2003 to April, 2015, covering 139 observations. The analytical tool is vector autoregressive model (VAR) through Johansen and Juselius method of cointegration test, short-run relationships test, and Granger’s causality test. Unit root tests revealed that all variables are stationary at first difference at 0.01 significant level. The result of cointegration test found that, one million bath change in fixed deposit would cause reverse effect in border trade at Mae Sot Customs House by 279,125 baht. However, one million bath change in credit loan of commercial banks in Tak province would lead to positive effect in border trade at Mae Sot Customs House by 527,921 baht. The short-run relationships test found that all variables have short-run relationships that may transit to long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, the results of Granger’s causality test showed that border trade value at Mae Sot Customs House is affected by the saving, fixed deposit and credit loan of commercial banks in Tak province. Two-way relationship could be found between border trade value and the amount of credit loan of commercial banks. Therefore, the tests show that credit loan is an important factor for private investments in Tak province. Consequently, the government and commercial banks should be careful in creating measures which might have direct effects on credit loan, in order to prevent the decline of border trade at Mae Sot Customs House.