การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบของสังคมผู้สูงอายุที่มีต่อตลาดหลักทรัพย์ทั่วโลก

Abstract

Several countries around the world are experiencing rapid changes in the age structure of their population, particularly the increasing proportion of elderly people. There is growing awareness of saving and investment behavior in the life cycle hypothesis, which may have differing impacts on global financial markets. Therefore, to understand the clear impact of aging populations on stock markets, research has focused on studying the group of countries that are more globally represented. The objective of this study is to examine and compare the impact of aging populations on stock markets using panel data. Annual data from 1991 to 2020 will be considered for 10 countries, categorized according to their economic development. Use the panel ARDL model with a fixed effect estimation to test the relationship of the proportion of elderly people in the population with the stock market, including comparing the impact of the proportion of elderly people changing with the stock market. The results of this study reveal that an increasing elderly population has a statistically significant positive impact on stock market indices, both in the global context and in developed countries. In contrast, in developing countries and economies in transition countries, the proportion of elderly people does not have a significant impact on the stock market index. This highlights the varying influences of demographic factors on stock market performance across different stages of economic development, with other variables such as interest rates, gross savings rates, consumer price index, and GDP per capita playing more significant roles in economies in transition.