Analyzing the nexus between grain imports and food security in China

Abstract

Food security is related to the country's political stability, economic development and social harmony, and grain import has become an important measure to maintain food security in China. Therefore, from the perspective of food import, this study analyzed the mpact of the import of the four main grains on the import of rice, wheat, soybean, and corn, on the basis of calculating the comprehensive food security index. This paper empirically tests the BVAR model for annual data from 2000-2023 after a new measure of food security level using PCA. The study found that the impact of rice and wheat import on food security is not significant, while the import of soybean and corn can improve the level of food security in the short term, among which the soybean has a stronger positive effect on food security. In addition, the occurrence of natural disasters will reduce the level of domestic food security, but the population growth will have a weak positive effect on the food security level. Therefore, in order to ensure the food security and stable development of China, while improving its own supply capacity, it also needs to import moderately, especially corn and soybean such grain for secondary processing has been important for a long time.