การจัดการความเสี่ยงของการผลิตและการตลาด ทุเรียนในจังหวัดระยอง

Abstract

This study aims to analyze production and marketing risks of durian, evaluate these risks, and manage risks faced by durian farmers in Khao Chamao District, Rayong Province. Data were gathered from samples of over 30 agriculturists, consisting of 15 agriculturists who applies usage of technologies in durian production and 15 who do not. The fishbone diagram was used to identify the causes of risk and Likelihood Impact Matrix was used to assess the impacts of risk events. The study also examines how agriculturist manage production and marketing risks. The results showed that both groups of agriculturists had similar production and marketing practices, predominantly growing the Monthong durian variety, followed by Krathum and Chanee. Most agriculturists had 10-30 years of experience and cultivated durian on plots of up to 15 rai. Agriculturists using technology invested in heavy machinery such as sprayers, riding mowers, and cherry pickers to save time, reduce labor costs, and address labor shortages. In contrast, non-technology agriculturists continued traditional durian production, using light machinery like backpack mowers and high-pressure sprayers. Both groups primarily produced durians for export. Quality durians (grade AB) were sold to durian traders, while non-grade durians from the technology group were sold to the traders and from the non-technology group to middlemen for domestic consumption. Neither group engaged in durian processing for sale. Risk analysis revealed that both groups faced similar production and marketing risks. Production risks included environmental issues from weather variability, labor shortages and health problems from chemical use, plant diseases and pests, high production costs, easily damaged agricultural tools, and low-quality yield. Marketing risks comprised regulations, competition, marketing channels, price volatility, and buyer and middleman issues. The technology group faced higher price risks due to larger cultivation areas, leading to price suppression when durian supply was high. Agriculturists managed high to very high-level risks. For severe health risks, agriculturists wore protective gear and had annual health checkups. For plant diseases and pests, they regularly inspected durian fields and sprayed pesticides. Labor shortage risks were managed differently: the technology group used more technology in production and offered higher wages and benefits, while the non-technology group hired seasonal labor. However, some risks, such as environmental variability, high production costs, competition, and regulations, lacked effective management strategies, leaving farmers vulnerable to potential impacts on their operations.