การวิเคราะห์มูลค่าความเสี่ยงของการเปลี่ยนแปลงราคาวัสดุก่อสร้างในค่าก่อสร้างเกินงบประมาณของบ้านเดี่ยวสองชั้นในจังหวัดเชียงใหม่

Abstract

One of the biggest problems of constructing a house is the construction cost overruns related to controllable and uncontrollable factors. In this study, to examine whether the factor of construction material price change is uncontrollable factor, which is increased due to a change of construction material price and examine how to prevent the problems resulted in higher financial cost and slower completed time of constructing house. To examine the risk value of the construction cost overruns caused by a change of construction material price of two-story house in Chiang Mai province, five sets of the bill of quantities in the construction and data on the Ministry of Commerce's building material price index for the past 5 years of each house construction were collected. Then, Monte Carlo Stimulation on ModelRisk program was applied to analyze the data. The result revealed that the analyzed data was able to predict the possibility of construction material price changes in cost overruns of two-story house in Chiang Mai province compared to the bill of quantities in the construction and indicate the variance of construction material price in each category. Therefore, an advantage of this study is to demonstrate the cost overruns risk of construction material price changes by using Monte Carlo Stimulation for decision of house owners or contractors.