Predicting the past, current, and future climate niche distribution of Tetragonula iridipennis Smith 1854 (Apidae: Meliponini) across the Indomalayan realm: insights into the impact of climate change

Abstract

The distribution range of many bee species in Asia has been affected by changing climates. Ecological niche models (ENMs) have many applications for predicting the effects of such changes in climate conditions on the future species range. Tetragonula iridipennis Smith, 1854 (Apidae: Meliponini) is a tropical stingless bee distributed in some parts of the Indomalayan realm. This species is one of the most critical keystone bee pollinators across its range. We predicted its paleodistribution, current, and future ranges across the Indomalayan realm. We used the maximum entropy method to build our models in seven periods, from the last interglacial until 2070. The isothermality was the most determinant climate factor affecting the climate niche of the species. Our predictions showed that in the last glacial maximum and previous interglacial periods the extent of the climatically suitable habitats of the species was probably broader than in the current scenario. The climatic suitability of the existing range will be expanded geographically in some parts of southeast Asia and northern India by 2070 under climate scenarios. The lack of significant climate niche divergence among the populations studied, except for Indonesia-Sri Lanka, results in uniformity of the climate conditions across the species’ range and recent range expansion. With the projected spatial patterns of the climate niche of the species, future management efforts for the effective conservation of the species will be facilitated by identifying potentially suitable habitats and areas where it is more likely to survive.