Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis Based on Partial Least Square and Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos Expansion

Abstract

This paper presents a new algorithm based on the partial least square (PLS) techniques and the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion (aPCE) for the probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis of a power system having many uncertain variables. The proposed method uses the nonlinear PLS to transform a set of random input variables to a smaller number of de-correlated random variables. Then, the aPCE technique is applied to generate the basis polynomial functions and build a surrogate model of the power system response. The algorithm has been implemented and tested with the modified IEEE 118-bus and European 1354-bus systems. The numerical results indicate that, similar to the sparse PCE method and the low-rank approximation technique, the proposed method can be applied to high-dimensional PPF problems. Nonetheless, the proposed approach uses smaller computation time, and estimates statistical characteristics of the response with higher accuracy.