Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/71707
Title: Spatiotemporal analyses of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle farms in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand
Authors: Orapun Arjkumpa
Chalutwan Sansamur
Pakdee Sutthipankul
Chaidate Inchaisri
Kannika Na Lampang
Arisara Charoenpanyanet
Veerasak Punyapornwithaya
Authors: Orapun Arjkumpa
Chalutwan Sansamur
Pakdee Sutthipankul
Chaidate Inchaisri
Kannika Na Lampang
Arisara Charoenpanyanet
Veerasak Punyapornwithaya
Keywords: Veterinary
Issue Date: 1-Jun-2020
Abstract: © 2020 The Author(s). Background: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally. In Thailand, FMD is endemic with 183 and 262 outbreaks occurring in the years 2015 and 2016, respectively. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of FMD outbreaks among cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun provinces in the northern part of Thailand during the period of 2015-2016. A retrospective space-time scan statistic including a space-time permutation (STP) and the Poisson and Bernoulli models were applied in order to detect areas of high incidence of FMD. Results: Results have shown that 9 and 8 clusters were identified by the STP model in 2015 and 2016, respectively, whereas 1 and 3 clusters were identified by the Poisson model, and 3 and 4 clusters were detected when the Bernoulli model was applied for the same time period. In 2015, the most likely clusters were observed in Chiang Mai and these had a minimum radius of 1.49 km and a maximum radius of 20 km. Outbreaks were clustered in the period between the months of May and October of 2015. The most likely clusters in 2016 were observed in central Lamphun based on the STP model and in the eastern area of Chiang Mai by the Poisson and Bernoulli models. The cluster size of the STP model (8.51 km) was smaller than those of the Poisson and Bernoulli models (> 20 km). The cluster periods in 2016 were approximately 7 months, while 4 months and 1 month were identified by the Poisson, Bernoulli and STP models respectively. Conclusions: The application of three models provided more information for FMD outbreak epidemiology. The findings from this study suggest the use of three different space-time scan models for the investigation process of outbreaks along with the follow-up process to identify FMD outbreak clusters. Therefore, active prevention and control strategies should be implemented in the areas that are most susceptible to FMD outbreaks.
URI: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=85085909187&origin=inward
http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/71707
ISSN: 17466148
Appears in Collections:CMUL: Journal Articles

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in CMUIR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.