การศึกษาปัจจัยที่มีอิทธิพลต่ออุปสงค์รถยนต์ และการพยากรณ์อุปสงค์รถยนต์ในประเทศไทย: กรณีศึกษากลุ่มตลาดรถยนต์นั่งขนาดเล็กและกลุ่มตลาดรถยนต์นั่งกึ่งบรรทุก

Abstract

This research mainly consists of two parts. In the first part, researchers studied the main factors influencing automotive demand in Thailand by employing the Two-Stage Least Squares models. In this case, researchers selected the retail sales volume of small – car and Pickup – Passenger Vehicle (PPV) segments as the studying case. In the second part of this research, we used the ARIMA models to forecast the automotive demand of the aforementioned segments and using these results to be the decision-support information for sales and marketing decisions.

The results showed that the factors affecting the automotive demand consist of the owned car price of each segment, fuel price representing the price of complementary goods, other car prices as the price of substituted goods, advertising expense for each segment and consumer’s income. All of these variables have a significant relationship with the retailed quantity demand of automotive in all studied segments and the sign of all coefficients are consistent with the demand theory. Finally, for the construction of ARIMA model for forecasting automotive demand in each segment, we found that the appropriate models for forecasting the retail sales volume of small – car and Pickup – Passenger Vehicle (PPV) are SARIMA (2,1,2)x(1,1,0)12 and ARIMA(1,1,1), consecutively