Decision analysis on generation capacity of a wind park

Abstract

The investment decision on generation capacity of a wind park is difficult when wind studies or data are neither available nor sufficient to provide adequate information for developing a wind power project. Although new measurement is possible but it is definitely time consuming. To determine the optimum capacity, decision analysis techniques are proposed in this paper to cope with uncertainties arising from wind speed distribution and power-speed characteristics. The wind speed distribution is modeled from the measured data, the Rayleigh distribution, and the Weibull distribution. The power-speed curve of a wind turbine from cut-in speed to rated speed is modeled by using linear, parabolic, cubic, and quadratic characteristics. The optimization model is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem. The constraints are considered as interval bounds so that a set of feasible solutions is obtained. The optimum solution can be determined by using the profit-to-cost and profit-to-area ratios as performance metrics of investment. Decision analysis rules are then applied to overcome the uncertainty problem and to refine the investment plan. The proposed procedure has been tested with the wind power project of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.