การพัฒนาตัวแบบพยากรณ์ความต้องการผลิตภัณฑ์สำหรับโรงงานแปรรูปเนื้อสุกร

Abstract

This independent study is conducted to find product’s demand forecasting model and to develop demand forecasting program for factory (which is this research’s case study). Specifically, only best-selling product category, which had 4 size of packing dimension were analyzed. This study began with the analyzing of factory’s current situation. Besides, data collection was also conducted for analyze forecasting technique which suit each packing dimension. As a result, an appropriate forecasting technique for four packing dimension was Winter's Method; it had the coefficient of prediction as the followings: alpha (α), beta (β) and gamma (γ) which are different for each packing dimension. According to the results, this method caused minimal tolerance of the forecast which was considered by the values of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). After the appropriate forecasting techniques had been found, the program was developed in Microsoft Excel along with VBA for lead factory be able to forecast the further production planning.