ความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างอัตราเงินเฟ้อและการใช้จ่ายของรัฐบาลในจังหวัดเชียงใหม่

Abstract

This is an independent research on a Relationship Between Inflation and Government Expenditure in Chiang Mai Province. The used data is an annual secondary data analysis that relates to Consumer Price Index, Current and Investment Expenditure in Chiang Mai within January 2006 – December 2014. Then the percent of change was calculated as monthly data. The test results of stationary found all data was statistically significant at the 0.01 level indicating that all the data was stationary I(0). The estimate lag found that the appropriate level was 1 Lag.

The analysis results under VAR model found that the percent increase of consumer price index a month earlier will result in its rise in the next month. And the percent increase of consumer price indexa month earlier will result in a current expenditure rise in the next month.Including the percent increase of current expenditure a month earlier will result in an investment expenditure rise in the next month too. This relationship will have an ongoing impact.Howevertheanalysis results found thatthere are no variables which affect the percent of change of consumer price index .

The Impulse Response Function Analysis showed that sudden changes in the past of the significant inflation will be adjusted to the equilibrium after 1 year.