แผนการผลิตพืชที่เหมาะสมแบบหลายเป้าหมายในเขตลุ่มน้ำยวมตอนล่าง จังหวัดแม่ฮ่องสอน

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop optimal crop production plans at watershed level of Yuam Watershed, Mae Hong Son Province. The analysis was made using multi- goal linear programming (MGLP) model, with economic, social and environment objectives weighted by two stakeholder groups, namely farmers and agriculture officers. Six goals considered in the model were net income, cash costs, labor use, water use and pesticide and herbicide use. The results showed that the weights given to goals related to economic aspects were the highest in the two stakeholder groups but the weights given by farmers were higher (0.625) than those given by the officers (0.55). The officers gave a higher weight to the goal related to environment compared with the farmers. The farmers gave higher weights to social goals as against environmental goals while the officers gave relatively equal weights to the two aspects. The results showed however that optimal production plans between 2 groups are not different. In the rainy season, optimal production plan consisted of 7,533 rai of non-glutinous rice and 23,280 rai of soybean. The optimal production plan in the dry season consisted of 1,173 rai of maize for seeds, 10,969 rai of garlic and 1,092 rai of soybean. Net income for those production plans was found to be 342 million baht for both groups. When we compared the optimal production plan with the actual production, we found that in the rainy season in lower Yaum watershed, the crop production was more diversified than the optimal production. However, in the dry season, the cropping patterns were not so different. The sensitivity analysis revealed that when the price of garlic was lower, garlic was planted in a smaller area and corn for seed increased. However, if the garlic prices increased, the optimal production plan would not change. When the price of rice increased, the optimal production plan was changed in that more rice and less soybean was planted. This also affected dry season cropping, as planting more rice entailed higher production costs resulting in lower capital available in the dry season, therefore less garlic and more corn for seed and soybean were planted in the dry season as these crops were less capital intensive than garlic.