The effects of great power competition on Thai foreign policy Since 2001

Abstract

Growing competition between the United States and China is quickly becoming a defining feature of the 21st century international system, much like that of the United States and the Soviet Union defined the latter 20th century. Thailand’s deep historical, economic, and political ties to the great powers, and its central position with the Greater Mekong Subregion, make it ripe for an analysis of how great power competition is affecting its foreign policy. This work fills a gap in the existing literature on Thai foreign policy by taking an expansive backward look at nearly two decades of policy actions and reactions by the United States, China, and Thailand to identify patterns across multiple governments. The information gained through a deep reading of primary and secondary sources on Thai policy is then used to determine plausible future outcomes for Thai foreign policy in a continued environment of great power competition. This work establishes a clear pattern of strategic hedging by Thailand that, while frequently impacted by domestic political instability, supports national interests that include economic growth, national security, and the maintenance of a historical independence from foreign powers.