การจัดการพอร์ตโฟลิโอของกลุ่มอุตสาหกรรมระหว่างวงจรธุรกิจ

Abstract

This research aims to study investment management in terms of risk and return rates across various industries in Thailand during each period of the country's business cycles. The study focuses on Thailand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Thai Industrial Index from January 1, B.E. 2549 (2006 AD) to December 31, B.E. 2565 (2022 AD), as well as the prices of stocks listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, totaling 726 companies. The findings reveal that during the studied period, a business cycle occurs approximately every 4.6 years, resulting in a total of three cycles. Moreover, many industries in Thailand experience business cycles that align with the country's overall business cycles, driven by the Thai GDP. In terms of distinguishing each period of Thailand's business cycles from the three occurrences, they can be divided as follows: During the expansionary phases of the economy, there are eight prominent industries, including construction, retail trade, and engineering. On the other hand, during economic downturns, there are seven prominent industries, including electronics, food, and oil and gas. Meanwhile, during economic contractions, there are six prominent industries, including construction, oil, and tourism. Finally, during economic recovery, six industries stand out, including beverage, electronics, and forestry. These distinctions are influenced by the main economic indices of the country. The study results regarding portfolio investment can be explained as follows: During the expansionary and recovery phases of the economy, investments following the business cycles have the opportunity for higher returns and lower risks compared to investing in the top 10 highest-valued stocks at that time. However, during downturns and economic contractions, the returns and risks of investing according to business cycles and investing in the top 10 highest-valued stocks at that time may differ slightly. Investments in the top 10 highest-valued stocks tend to have lower risks. Nevertheless, the investment strategy based on this study depends on the investor's risk tolerance.