The Impacts of China’s Central Bank Digital Currency on Third-party Payment in China

Abstract

The study examines the public's acceptance of China's central bank's digital currency and evaluates the impact of the emergence of China's central bank digital currency on the market share of third-party payment tools. First, this work collected data through a questionnaire with a sample size of 515 and identified the key factors that influenced people's willingness to hold China’s central bank digital currency, and then we used the Bayesian logistic regression model to find out the results. The results show that people's income, education level, and whether they live in pilot cities have a greater impact on people's willingness to hold China’s central bank digital currency. Finally, we used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to study whether the emergence of China's central bank digital currency has a long-run impact on the market share of third-party payment tools and reviewed it using the relevant quarterly time series data for 2016-2021. The results show that, except for the net assets of WeChat financial products at the end of the period, other factors have a long-run impact on the market share of third-party payment tools.