การวิเคราะห์การส่งออกและความสามารถในการแข่งขันปลาทูน่ากระป๋องของประเทศไทยไปยังตลาดประเทศสำคัญ

Abstract

The independent study proposes of this research: 1) To analyze the export situation of canned tuna Including the problems and obstacles of the Thai canned tuna industry 2) To study the advantages on comparing the exports of Thai canned tuna products to the main importer market compared with other exporting countries 3) To forecast Thai canned tuna exports using the Arima model. It will predict the trend of canned tuna for 3 years since 2020-2022 which the data used in this study were secondary data, which Thai canned tuna exporting data According to the 6 digits tariff is 160414, which is the annual historical data since 2005-2019 for a total of 15 years. Descriptive Analysis of Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA), Dynamic Revealed Comperative Advantage Index (DRCA) and Arima forecast. The results of the research can be summarized as follows: 1. Thailand had more than 1 comparative advantage over the study period. And had a comparative advantage over all 3 trade competitors which Thailand has a comparative advantage in exporting canned tuna to the main importers of canned tuna in the United States, Australia and Japan. In this case analyzing Thai canned tuna potential showed that Thailand was in a situation "Rising Stars" in the years 2005-2006, 2008-2009, 2011, 2015 and 2018-2019. It is in the situation of "Falling Stars" in 2010, 2012 and 2014 and is in a "Lagging opportunity" situation in 2007, 2013 and 2012..2016-2017 2. The comparison with the actual export value of Thai canned tuna during the 15-year period 2005-2019 found that the actual export data and forecast data are related to each other, tending in the same direction. And forecasts for the export value of canned tuna over a period of three years in 2020-2022 show that Thailand is likely to export more canned tuna.