แผนการผลิตพืชที่เหมาะสมภายใต้ความเสี่ยงในพื้นที่ที่มีอ้อยเป็นพืชหลัก อำเภอตากฟ้า จังหวัดนครสวรรค์

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to analyse optimal crop production plans in sugarcane-based areas under risk of different farm sizes of farmers in Tak Fa District, Nakhon Sawan Province. Time series data of prices and yields of various crops from crop year 2002-2011 were collected as secondary data. Primary data about crop production systems in crop years 2009/10 –2011/12 were collected by field survey. Two-state sampling technique was applied. Villages were randomly selected in the first state and households in the second state. There were 69 samples of small farm (1-60 rai), 26 samples of medium farm (61-200 rai) and 5 samples of large farms (201 rai up). In total there were 100 samples. On average, the small farmers had an area of 42.61 rai/ household and labour force for working on farm about 2.39 person/household. The medium farmers had an area of 94.15 rai/ household and labour force for working on farm about 2.58 person/household. The large farmers had an area of 408 rai/ household and labour force for working on farm about 2.20 person/household. The study of grown crops was found that crops with high returns and high variance were sugarcane and cassava. Crops with high returns but low variance were wet season rice and sweet corn. For low returns crops but high variance were maize in both season and sunflower. Crops with low returns and high variance were sorghum and peanuts. The analysis of optimal crop production plan under income risk of different farm sizes by using MOTAD and the level of risk aversion from 0.00 to 2.50 showed that the small farm in case

of not considering risk were suggested to grow sugarcane as a major crop in both upland and lowland areas and grow sweet corn in the dry season and wet season rice on lowland areas. Small-farm farmer will have income above the cash costs for 3 years at the highest level with the amount of 1.16 million baht. But when the level of risk aversion was increasing the suggested production plan should reduce the production area of sugarcane in both upland and lowland areas to be the production area of cassava on upland areas and sweet corn and wet season rice on lowland but this production plan will reduce the income over case cost of farmer. The medium farm in case of not considering risk were suggested to grow sugarcane as a major crop in both upland and lowland areas with cassava on upland areas and wet season rice on lowland areas. Medium-farm farmer will have income above the cash costs for 3 years at the highest level with the amount of 1.79 million baht. But when the level of risk aversion was increasing the suggested production plan should reduce the production area of sugarcane in both upland and lowland areas to be the production area of cassava on upland areas and wet season rice on lowland but this production plan will reduce the income over case cost of farmer. For the large farm in case of not considering risk were suggested to grow sugarcane as a major crop in both upland and lowland areas with cassava on upland areas and wet season rice on lowland areas. Large-farm farmer will have income above the cash costs for 3 years at the highest level with the amount of 7.81 million baht. But when the level of risk aversion was increasing the suggested production plan should reduce the production area of cassava in upland and wet season rice in lowland areas to be the production area of sugarcane in both upland and lowland areas but this production plan will reduce the income over case cost of farmer. The change of water availability of large farms showed that water availability have no effect on wet season rice production areas in the case that risk was not considered. For the change of credit limitation in agricultural sector, the result was found that without considering risk in the medium farms, by increasing credit limits, farmers should grow sugarcane more and reduce growing wet season rice on lowland. When the risk aversion level increased, the credit limits will have no effect on the crop. For the large farms, it was found that the credit limits will effect on the increase of cassava production areas.