การประเมินมูลค่าของโครงการก่อสร้างโดยวิธีเรียลออปชันส์

Abstract

The Discounted Cash Flow method is widely used to estimate the return on corporate investment for the project feasibility study. This method, however, have some limitations when applied in a real-life business project. An alternative approach, the Real Options Analysis, is a complement to the traditional approach. The former assumes a one-time decision making process while the latter assumes a multiple paths of decisions. The management is able to have a flexibility to choose the optimal options whenever there is an uncertainty embedded in the investment, especially in the real estate projects, as a management decision has an intense impact on the firm’s wealth. The study case used in this independent study was a couple of low-rise condominiums, with a total investment value of nearly a hundred million baht, located in Mae Rim, Chiang Mai Province. The management was able to choose three possible strategies: to defer the initial of the investment, to make an investment at the moment, or not to invest in this project. The option value was derived from the Binomial Option Pricing model. The net present value was calculated to estimate the investment worthwhileness. The Binomial Option Pricing was applied to estimate the project value, where the deferral option was selected as an alternative for managerial flexibility. The study found that the option to defer an investment yields the most option value. This could be assumed that to defer an investment for one year is the most optimal decision at the moment. The firm estimated that it would earn more profits through this strategy if the future event turns out to be as expected.