ปัจจัยที่มีผลต่ออัตราการเจริญเติบโตของการนำเข้าในกลุ่มสมาชิก อาเซียน โดยวิธีการถดถอยแบบพาแนลควอนไทล์

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to examine the factors affecting the growth rate of imports in ASEAN using panel quantile regression. The data used in this research is annual date covering the period of 2000 to 2012 for Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Laos and Indonesia. This study used the growth rate of the gross domestic product, the growth exchange rate and the inflation rate as determining factors of the growth rate of imports in ASEAN. The results of the studies in imports, gross domestic product, exchange rate and inflation of ASEAN found imports and gross domestic product of ASEAN tends to be more expansive, whereas the exchange rate tends to appreciate. Vietnam was the only country which the exchange rate depreciated. The result of the factors that affect the rate of growth of imports of the ASEAN. When panel quantile regression was used to compare the different factors that affected rate of growth of imports at different levels, it found in low-level, mid-level, and high-level of the growth rate of import. That the growth rate of gross domestic product and the growth rate of the exchange rate did not affect the growth rate of imports of ASEAN. Only inflation affects the growth rate of imports of ASEAN in the same direction that will have the greatest impact on the growth rate of imports, which is high in the low and middle, respectively.