การวิเคราะห์ความสัมพันธ์ของปัจจัยที่มีผลต่อปริมาณการใช้พลังงานไฟฟ้าของโรงไฟฟ้าพลังน้ำเขื่อนภูมิพล

Abstract

The purposes of this study were (1) to find out the factors and to analyze the relationship of factors which affect to electrical energy usage at Bhumibol Hydro Power Plant and (2) to develop the Mathematical Models for forecast the electrical energy usage at Bhumibol Hydro power Plant (EGAT). The data collection was used as the method of this study. The data were divided into 4 systems: production system, cooling system, lighting system and other systems and had considered the variables which were the factors related with electrical energy usage included (1) the number each of start-up of the electricity generator, (2) quantity of water release, (3) electrical energy used of chiller and (4) electrical energy used for illumination at power plant. With reference to the data were collected via the above-mentioned variables, there were used for the relationship analysis of each variables which affect to electrical energy usage. The Inference Statistics Principles were used for data analysis. As for the evaluation was used by Statistics Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) as a tool to analyze. The result of this study was found that the relationship of variables as follows: quantity of water release, electrical energy used of chiller and electrical energy used for illumination at power plant were accordingly with the quantity of electrical energy usage at power plant. The most related with the quantity of water release is the quantity of electrical energy usage at power plant, the electrical energy used of chiller, and the electrical energy usage for illumination at power plant respectively. As for the number each of Start-up is inverse relationship which is a least or non-related with the quantity of electrical energy usage at power plant. Moreover, it was found the Mathematical Models or the equation of multiple regression as follows: SSU = 0.012 – 0.00003414 NUSTART + 0.00004148REL + 0.0000001914CHILL + 0.00001942 LIGHT The analysis of the equation of multiple regression revealed that the four variables above-mentioned could clarified the variability of the electrical energy usage at 36.9 % while other 63.1 % were influenced from other factors. With reference is made to the above-mentioned study, it was concluded that when water release had increased, the electrical energy usage would had increased. If there were increasing the electrical energy used of chiller, the electrical energy usage would had increased as well. In case of there were more electrical energy usage for illumination at power plant, there would had increased of electrical energy usage with a statistically significant. As for the number each of start-up of the electricity generator, it was inversely related but non-statistically significant.