การวิเคราะห์ผลตอบแทนจากการลงทุนโดยใช้การวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิคของหุ้นบริษัทค้าปลีกขนาดใหญ่ในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทย

Abstract

This research aims to compare the predictions of the technical analysis tools used to analyze commercial stocks, including BIGC, BJC, CPALL, HMPRO, MAKRO, and ROBINS, in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The highest of return in the form of return on investment in capital gain by using different analytical tools include Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Stochastic. Those analytical tools were used in three periods: 2nd January 2013 through 30th December 2013, 2nd January 2014 through 30th December 2014, and 5th January 2015 through 30th September 2015. The study found that the technical tools that provided the maximum return on investment is Stochastic9 from investment in the stock of HMPRO, and technical tools that provided a return on a minimal investment are Simple Moving Average (SMA75) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA200) in BJC and ROBINS. If investing during all three periods by using different tools, Home Product Center Public Company Limited (HMPRO) is a company that investors will receive the maximum return on investment and Robinson Department Store (ROBINS) is a company that investors will receive a return on minimal investment. The tool which signaled to buy or sell of the maximum is Stochastic9, which signaled a total of 64 times in trading to Big C Supercenter Public Company Limited (BIGC). The tool that sent the buy or sell signal of the minimum is Relative Strength Index (RSI), which signaled only two times in trading to Berli Jucker Public Company (BJC), CP ALL Public Company Limited (CPALL), and Siam Makro Public Company Limited (MAKRO). Simple Moving Average (SMA75) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA200, 200) signaled a second time as well to trading in Robinson Department Store Public Company Limited (ROBINS). In conclusion, the number of trading signals are unrelated to the yield.