การศึกษาความเป็นไปได้ทางการเงินของการผลิตน้ำส้ม 100% ด้วยกระบวนการความดันสูงในอําเภอเมือง จังหวัดเชียงราย

Abstract

This independent study sought to investigate the financial feasibility of producing 100% orange juice through a high-pressure process in Mueang District, Chiang Rai Province, as well as to assess the project's sensitivity to change. The data was analyzed using descriptive methods to study the context of the orange juice market, cost components, and income components, and consider financial feasibility by using criteria such as payback period, net present value, benefit cost ratio, and rate of return within the project, and assess the risks by analyzing the sensitivity to changes in project cost and revenue factors. According to research on orange juice goods and the market, the orange juice market accounted for 40-50 percent of the Thai fruit juice market. The majority of consumers favoured 100% orange juice products. In Thailand, there were four types of orange juice production: ultra-high temperature (UHT), pasteurization, high--pressure processing (HPP), and fresh squeezed. The HPP product was one of the non-heated pasteurized products. The country's biggest operators produced the majority of UHT, pasteurized, and HPP goods. There are avenues of distribution all around the country. Local enterprises typically made fresh-squeezed items, which they marketed in the neighborhood or in the community. Large businesses make UHT, pasteurized, and HPP orange juice goods in Chiang Rai Province. There are distribution channels through supermarkets, convenience stores, etc. Local entrepreneurs manufactured fresh squeezed juice, which was sold in local shops and markets. The project's cost and income study revealed that it was divided into three parts: 1) A total of 10,575,550 baht was invested in land, buildings, office equipment, machinery, and vehicles; 2) production costs ranged from 4,354,050 to 6,139,769 baht; and 3) operating costs ranged from 676,000 to 705,260 baht. Furthermore, the product was sold through dealers in Chiang Rai through 16 convenience stores and 5 supermarkets, for a total of 21 branches, at a selling price of 46 baht per unit, and the project expects to earn between 7,051,800 and 10,939,950 baht from selling products from the first to the tenth year. According to the criteria for project investment consideration, the project had a payback duration of 4.47 years, a net present value of 13,074,339 baht, a benefit per cost of 1.23, and a project rate of return of 16.78 percent, indicating that the repayment period was within the project life. The net present value of the investment was positive. The project's rate of return was higher than the government bond yields it used, and the rate of return on cost was larger than 1. It may be concluded that the initiative to make 100% orange juice using a high-pressure technique, often known as HPP orange juice, is still a worthwhile investment. Furthermore, the results of the consideration criteria revealed that the project was financially viable. Sensitivity analysis considering the project's cost and revenue risk factors, it was discovered that a 10% increase in cost changes affected the project's investment consideration criteria as follows: the payback period was increased by 15.17 percent, from 4.47 to 5.15 years, the net present value has decreased from 13,074,339 to 9,700,700 baht (25.80 percent decrease), the value decreased from 1.23 to 1.16 (5.69 percent decrease), and the project's rate of return has fallen from 16.78 percent to 12.87 percent (23.30 percent decrease). In the case of a change in income, a 10% decrease affected the criteria for considering project investment as follows: the payback period has increased from 4.47 to 6.10 years (36.47 percent increase), the net present value fell from 13,074,339 to 5,992,692 baht (54.16 percent decrease), the return on investment has dropped from 1.23 to 1.10. (10.56 percent change), and the project's rate of return has dropped from 16.78 percent to 8.35 percent (50.20 percent decrease). As a result of this test, the criteria for project investment consideration showed that the project had investment potential. However, the change in the project's revenue declined. It had a significant impact on the project's feasibility. Therefore, the income factor was a significant risk factor for the project that may have affected the project negatively.