แบบจำลองการพยากรณ์ภาวะล้มละลายของวิสาหกิจขนาดกลางและขนาดย่อมในประเทศไทย

Abstract

This Study aims to develop a model of Bankruptcy for Small and Medium Enterprises in Thailand and Study the key differences between bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy enterprises. Group Information of Small and Medium Enterprises The study used in the study consisted of small and medium-sized enterprises with bankruptcy and not bankruptcy that it the definition of small and medium enterprises 2019 was a three-year study from 2017 to 2019, with a total sample of 96 companies include comprising 48 bankruptcy companies and 48 non-bankruptcy companies. The results of the study revealed that the important variables that can predict bankruptcy in advance 1 year before the business can go bankrupt significantly is Fixed Asset Turnover, Operating income margin, Return on equity and Age of company. That Fixed Asset Turnover, Operating income margin, return on equity of not bankruptcy enterprises mean different more than bankruptcy enterprises but Age of company of bankruptcy enterprises mean different more than not bankruptcy enterprises. In the case that the data used in the analysis is data 1 year before the business bankruptcy Accuracy Fixed Asset Turnover, Operating income margin, Return on equity and Age of company. As a result, the accuracy of the model equations in the SME bankruptcy forecasting in this study was 77.08%. in addition, used in the analysis is data 2 year before the business bankruptcy the accuracy of the model equations in the SME bankruptcy forecasting in this study was 71.88%