การทดสอบความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างการส่งออกมันสำปะหลังของ ประเทศไทยกับปัจจัยทางด้านเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาคโดยวิธีเออาร์ดี แอล(ARDL Approach to Cointegration)

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the relationship between Thai cassava export and macroeconomic determinants, by using the ARDL approach to cointegration method. Drawing on monthly data for the past 10 years, starting from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2015, this study examines the data of cassava exports from Thailand to major economies such as China , Japan and Indonesia. In this study, the data analysis involves a correlational examination through an estimation of the ARDL approach to cointegration, which can be classified into three main categories. The first category involves an analysis of the foreign currency exchange and the volume of cassava exports from Thailand to major importing countries which have great influence on the long-run equilibrium relationship with the prices of cassava exports from Thailand to the aforementioned countries including the export of cassava sago from Thailand to major importing three main countries, the export of cassava chip from Thailand to China and the export of cassava flour from Thailand to China and Indonesia. The Second category includes only the volume of cassava exports from Thailand to major importing countries which have great influence on the long-run equilibrium relationship with the prices of cassava exports from Thailand to the importing countries including the export of cassava chip from Thailand to Japan and the export of cassava flour from Thailand to Japan. The Third category includes only foreign currency exchange rates that are influential to the long-run equilibrium relationship with the prices of cassava exports from Thailand to major importing countries such as the export of cassava chip from Thailand to Indonesia. In the short-run equilibrium relationship can be classified into two categories. The first category only the volume of cassava exports from Thailand to major importing countries which have great influence on the short-run equilibrium relationship with the prices of cassava exports from Thailand to the importing countries such as the export of cassava sago from Thailand to major importing three main countries, the export of cassava chip from Thailand to China and Japan and the export of cassava flour from Thailand to China and Japan. The Second category only foreign currency exchange rates that are influential to the short-run equilibrium relationship with the prices of cassava exports from Thailand to major importing countries including the export of cassava chip from Thailand to Indonesia and the export of cassava flour from Thailand to Indonesia. All variable have been adapted from the short-run to the long-run equilibrium relation.