การศึกษาความเป็นไปได้ในการลงทุนโครงการ โรงไฟฟ้าเซลล์แสงอาทิตย์ในอำเภอเกาะคา จังหวัดลำปาง

Abstract

This study aimed at conducting thefeasibility study on the investment of solar power plants in Koh Kha district, Lampang provinceconsisting of 4 business functions: marketing, operation, management and finance. The exploration on electricity demand, types of technology and project location, appropriate operation and management, and initial capital fund and investment return were conducted according to the assessment on Net Present Value (NPV), Multiple Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) and Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio). Risk and Uncertainty analyses were also applied by the use of Switching Value Test (SVT). According to the study on marketing, the result showed that the electricity demand of people in the whole country and in the studied area was increasedcontinuously according to the growth of economic and household. This project could respond to the electricity demand for those in the studied area at 6.0%.For operation, the result showed that the feasibility was done for Amorphous Silicon Cells with Photovoltaic Grid Connected System and appropriate size and location of the project. For management, the appropriate operation and management were divided into 2 stages: Pre-operation and In-between operation stages. For the pre-operation or constructing stage, the appropriate operation and management was in the form of Turn Key project. For the in-between operation stage, the appropriate operation and management was in small business scale with a single line of manager.For finance, the results showed that for 26 years of entire project period, the total amount of initial capital fund was 662 million Baht; of which 0.5 million Baht should be for expenses on pre-operation stage, 653 million Baht should be for fixed assetinvestment fund, and8.5 million Baht should be for working capited. The initial investment should come from owner at 25% and from banking loan at 75%. The WACC was equal to 6.82% and the NPV was at 743,288,686 Baht. The findings also revealed that the MIRR was at 15.62% per year and the N/K wasat 2.14%. In summary, the investment of this project was feasible because the investment return was found greater than WACC. Based upon the risk and uncertainty analyses as done by the use of Switching Value Test (SVT), the findings presented that it was possible for the project to have the decreasing income at 53.22%, the increasing project cost at 73.36%, the increasing initial investment at 113.78% and the increasing operating cost at 206.54%. Consequently, the project was feasible although the decrease in income or the increases inproject cost and operation cost occurred.