การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบความผันผวนของอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนต่อการส่งออกโดยใช้แบบจำลองปัจจัยการผลิตและผลผลิต

Abstract

This independent study has a purpose to analyze how fluctuation of exchange rate affects manufacturing of Thailand economy via exportation. This research conducts a model applied GARCH (general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) methodology to analyze relation between fluctuation of exchange rate and export from 2005 to 2014. Then input-output model of 2010 is used to find effects of each manufacturing sector which is divided by export structure of customs department, assuming that fluctuation of exchange rate decreases 5 percent. This study found that fluctuation of exchange rate Bath/USD has positively related to export by approximately 1.0314 (excluding 5 percent assumption) and 5.157 (including 5 percent assumption) percent. When applying those figures into input-output model, it found that the most effected manufacturing sector is industry sector (its value increasing 931,063,162 bath). In contrast, the least effected manufacturing sector is other manufacturing sector (its value increasing only 2,144,397 bath).