การตรวจสอบสมมติฐานเส้นโค้งสิ่งแวดล้อมของคุซเน็ตส์: หลักฐานเชิงประจักษ์จากการวิเคราะห์ความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างการปล่อยก๊าซคาร์บอนไดออกไซด์ ราคาน้ำมันโลก ผลิตภาพปัจจัยการผลิตโดยรวม การวิจัยและพัฒนา และดุลการค้าระหว่างประเทศ ในสหรัฐอเมริกา

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis from the relationship among carbon emissions, international crude oil prices, total factor productivity (TFP), research and development (R&D), and international trade balance in the US. The data was collected in term of annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. We analyze by using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and employ the Impulse Response Function to uncover the short-term dynamic relationships. Lastly, we conduct Granger Causality Tests to investigate the lead and lag variables. The study results reveal a two-way relationship between carbon emissions and TFP, and identified oil prices as causes of carbon emissions, while carbon emissions influenced trade balance. In the short-term, the impact of all variables has minimal effect on carbon emissions. Changes in TFP and R&D influenced by carbon emissions had persistent negative effects, while oil prices and trade balance had modest, long-term positive impacts on emission volatility. In the long term, the effect on carbon emission from all variables is bigger than the effect in short-term, especially the effect of TFP. However, oil price doesn’t have a significant impact on carbon emission and carbon emission has minimal effects on TFP and R&D but significantly impacted trade balances. Therefore, the economic growth of the United States using total factor productivity as an indicator demonstrates the acceptation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. These findings emphasize increasing in TFP and investment in R&D are crucial for mitigating emissions and highlight the importance of enhancing total factor productivity and investing in research and development to mitigate carbon emissions in the long run.