An analysis of the dynamic impact of oil price fluctuations on China's economy

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the mechanisms governing international oil price fluctuations and their dynamic repercussions on China's macroeconomy. To achieve this, we employ the BEKKGARCH model to examine whether fluctuations in international oil prices exert an influence on China's oil prices. Furthermore, we utilize the nonlinear Markov Regime Vector Autoregression (MS-VAR) model to analyze the evolving effects of international oil price fluctuations on China's macroeconomy under varying regimes. Our findings reveal a significant two-way volatility spillover effect between international and domestic crude oil markets. Moreover, the impact of international crude oil price movements on China's macroeconomy is tempered by China's unique economic conditions. It's noteworthy that the Chinese economy tends to exhibit stability after achieving equilibrium rather than undergoing rapid shifts.