การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบของความขัดแย้งระหว่างประเทศยูเครนและรัสเซียต่อวัฏจักรราคาพลังงานทดแทนและพลังงานฟอสซิล

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the influence of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia on the price cycles of renewable and fossil energy during period 2010-2022. A Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (MS-BVAR) model was employed to forecast and construct the energy price cycles for both types of energy and use regression models to analyze the magnitude of the impact of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with the Russia Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (REPU) serving as a proxy for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia that influences the energy price cycle. In addition, the Impulse response function is applied to analyze the time it takes to reach equilibrium and the response of energy prices to conflicts in different regimes. The study findings indicate a positive impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on renewable and fossil energy, with a nearly three-fold greater impact observed for renewable energy. Furthermore, the results of the energy price cycle estimation suggest that the Ukraine-Russia conflict exerts a significant influence on the volatility of fossil energy prices over time, particularly during events related to territorial disputes, sanctions, and wars. These factors contribute to longer and more volatile cycles of fossil energy prices. In addition, the impulse response function for the shock of energy prices for both types showed a period of time required to reach equilibrium in the 5th and 6th months. Moreover, the Impulse Response Function results reveal that the Russia Economic Policy Uncertainty shock has a significant impact on both the response and volatility of renewable energy indices, particularly in Europe, as well as on the price of fossil energy such as Brent crude oil and Natural gas.