ผลกระทบของการยกเลิกสารกำจัดศัตรูพืชทางการเกษตรในกรอบดุลยภาพทั่วไป

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship among agricultural pesticides and its impact on agriculture and other economic sectors of Thailand, in the context of chemical use and cancellation, as well as the impact on household income distribution. The database of the social accounting matrix in 2018 is utilized in this study, with the production sector divided according to the chemical relevance of paraquat, glyphosate, and chlorpyrifos. Moreover, the model is divided into three parts: 1) estimation of the multiplier, 2) estimation of the linkage effect, and 3) estimation of income distribution. The results reveal that the use of chemicals could have a positive impact on the economy through the expansion of agriculture and related sectors. On the other hand, if the use of chemicals was reduced, these branches of the production sector would be subject to the highest backward linkage, including maize corn grinding and tapioca production while still limiting the forward linkage in all branches of production. The goods and services sector would have the highest backward linkage in most of their branches with fruits, palm oil, and tapioca production benefiting from the forward linkage. When simulations were performed by reducing the use of chemicals from 25% to 100%, the value of multipliers in all economic sectors reduced, although the number of patients incurring medical expenses as a result of chemical exposure decreased and income inequality between households was unclear. Therefore, the government should provide and implement an effective method of economic management and set a food safety policy, if chemicals continue to be used. Furthermore, a reduction in the use of chemicals should be subject to a policy for planning and promoting industry and market production, taking into account the effect of both backward and forward linkages.