ผลกระทบของการส่งออกสินค้าในภาคการเกษตรต่อความมั่นคงทางอาหารในประเทศไทย

Abstract

This study discovers the impact of agricultural export and economic variables on food security in Thailand. The variables are classified into dependent variable per capita food availability and independent such as agricultural Export, unemployment, agricultural production, GDP per capita, employment in agriculture, mortality rate under-5 and agricultural land and covers the period from 1980 to 2011. This study mostly used secondary and annual data of each variable; the boundstest (ARDL) approach to co-integration was employed in this study. Texting unit root of each variable is required before co-integration test is conducted. This study employed unit root test Augmented Dickey-fuller (ADF Test). This test revealed that mortality rate and under 5 and agricultural land were stationary at level I(2), but the other were stationary at level I(1). Consequently, all variable were stationary with different order mixing I(1) and I(2). Autoregressive Distribution Lags (ARDL) was appropriate for testing co-integration. The long-run results indicated that agricultural Export, agricultural production, GDP per capita, mortality rate under-5 and employment in agriculture were positive impact on per capita food availability or food security, but the another was negative. The short-run outcome from Error correction model (ECM) suggested that mortality rate under-5 was negative impact on per capita food availability or food security but other was positive.