Data-driven consumer's demand prediction and contextual analysis to enhance agile marketing for halal food product trade between Thailand and China via E-Commerce platforms

Abstract

This thesis explores data-driven consumer demand forecasting and contextual analysis to optimize agile marketing strategies for the Halal food trade between Thailand and China through e-commerce platforms. It emphasizes the substantial growth of the global Halal market, fueled by the expanding Muslim population and the increasing demand for Halal-certified products. The research highlights Thailand's prominent position as a leading Halal food producer and China's rising interest in Halal products, supported by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The study integrates Philip Kotler's Marketing 5.0 model with the Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning (STP) framework, enhanced by data-driven technologies such as web crawling and web scraping. Predictive analytics and machine learning models, including LSTM, BiLSTM, and XGBoost, are employed to forecast consumer demand accurately. Contextual analysis examines broader socio-economic and cultural factors influencing consumer behavior, providing insights into developing targeted and adaptive marketing strategies. Key Result findings reveal that processed food and beverages are the best-selling Halal products, generating the highest revenue within the market. Predictive sales analysis shows a projected growth rate of 6.1% annually, with the Halal food market expected to reach $2.8 trillion by 2025. The study also highlights that sales surge significantly during festive periods, particularly Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, with post-Ramadan sales showing unexpected growth of 80,000,000 Yuan. The results have been concluded by aligning the results with agile marketing strategies, demonstrating how predictive analytics can inform the development of flexible and responsive marketing campaigns specifically for a defensive mechanism to cope with the F2C business models. It highlights the potential of integrating Thai Halal food products into the Chinese market, fostering economic growth, and enhancing bilateral trade relations through optimized e-commerce strategies.