การแจกแจงความน่าจะเป็นของความล่าช้าของเที่ยวบินขาออก ณ ท่าอากาศยานนานาชาติเชียงใหม่

Abstract

The objective of this research is to study the distribution of flight departure delays for domestic flights at Chiang Mai International Airport. We considered a total of 20 positively skewed distributions and estimated the parameters of each distribution using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. We selected the most appropriate distribution to explain flight departure delays for domestic flights at Chiang Mai International Airport and used the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The distribution selected for flight departure delays should have the smallest AIC and BIC values compared to the other 20 distributions. The distribution of flight departure delays for domestic flights at Chiang Mai International Airport from 2017 to 2019, with delay times between 1 and 45 minutes, was analyzed by grouping the data by year, destination airport region, and season, resulting in a total of 30 datasets. When comparing the AIC and BIC values from 20 distributions, we found that the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution had the smallest AIC and BIC values. Thus, the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution is the most appropriate for describing delays ranging between 1 and 45 minutes for the years 2017to 2019 across all groups of domestic departure flights at Chiang Mai International Airport.