The Analysis of Thailand's Agricultural Products Export to China by using the gravity model

Abstract

The rise of global trade in recent years has resulted in an increase in trade between China and Thailand. China has overtaken the United States as Thailand's top exporter of agricultural and ancillary goods, according to statistics from the country's National Trade Statistical Yearbook. But currently, there is also undoubtedly tremendous competition for exporting agricultural and ancillary goods on the global market. How can Thailand's agricultural and ancillary product export advantage be maintained, how can the Chinese agricultural and ancillary product import market be captured under the current export status, and how can China's market share be increased? These topics merit more investigation from us. Based on the analysis of their effects on the export of Thai agricultural products to China using the gravity model, five parameters (China's Gross Domestic Product, China's Consumer Price Index, Thai Baht exchange rate, Free On Board Prices of four major export agricultural products) are chosen as independent variables in this research. The study's findings indicate that these five elements have a substantial influence on Thai agricultural exports to China. This study puts forward some policy recommendations based on research results and factual experience. First of all, Thailand should actively adopt modern agricultural production technologies from industrialized countries, improve the scientific and technological content of its agricultural output, and enhance the competitiveness of Thailand's agricultural exports in the Chinese market. Secondly, Thailand needs to pay more attention to China’s agricultural product market demand and the Chinese economy. Relevant policies have been introduced to control the Free On Board Price of agricultural products and the Thai baht exchange rate. The third is to improve the quality and food safety of Thai agricultural products, strengthen the brand building of agricultural products, and develop online sales channels. Key word: Export, Gravity model, China, Thailand, Agricultural Products.