การประเมินศักยภาพทางการแข่งขันของการปลูกไม้โตเร็วในประเทศไทยสำหรับอุตสาหกรรมไม้เชื้อเพลิงชีวมวล: กรณีศึกษาไม้สกุลอคาเซีย (Acacia spp.)

Abstract

This research investigates the factors involved in the supply chain to assess the competitiveness of fast-growing plantations in Thailand for the biomass fuel wood industry, with a specific focus on a case study of Acacia spp. The study comprises the following components: 1) Analysis of biomass demand trends by examining statistical data on the import and export of wood pellets, along with forecasting techniques. The analysis reveals a global increase in wood pellet consumption. The Simple Moving Average model, with a three-month forecast, demonstrates the lowest forecasting error. The discrepancy is measured at MAD = 19,873, MSE = 6.61E+08, and MAPE = 17.78%. 2) Assessment of the competitiveness of the wood pellet industry using the diamond model. The study finds that the capacity of Thailand's wood pellet industry to compete in the international market remains insufficient. Regarding domestic competition, the industry exhibits a moderate level of competitiveness. However, Thailand can enhance its raw material supply by increasing the quantity of fuel wood to meet the demand. 3) Analysis of financial feasibility to support the information necessary for increasing the supply. The economic models used in the analysis indicate that investing in acacia wood is profitable, starting from the 5th year until Year 8 of the milling cycle, with respective return on investment (ROI) values of 19.40%, 92.85%, 182%, and 276.59%. Based on the study of all three components, it can be concluded that the global market is witnessing an increase in the amount of biomass, including imports, exports, and biomass production. Thailand currently possesses moderate capacity but holds potential for tree cultivation for fuel production. The economic feasibility analysis serves as supporting information and encourages investment for interested parties.