The Modern prediction of Chian’s demand for electricity

Abstract

This study aims to test the feasibility of using the nowcasting method onChina’selectricity consumption and comparing the different methods of prediction results usingthe data from 2000-2020. This study used the ARMAX model to forecast electricityconsumption as the reference of traditional forecasting to compare with thenewnowcasting method BSTS model’s result of prediction. Since the BSTS model has lowerRMSE and MAPE values, the nowcasting method BSTS model is better thanthetraditional forecasting method ARMAX model for electricity consumption predictionfor China. This has proved the feasibility of using the nowcasting method on electricityconsumption. As the result of BSTS prediction shows a positive trend of growth, thegovernment should keep increasing the investment in the electricity industry. Meanwhile, in the consideration of environmental protection and energy transitionefficiency, the government should pay more attention to newenergy resourcesconstruction.