Towards “Emergent Federalism” in Post-coup Myanmar

Abstract

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the 1 February 2021 coup, Myanmar is facing extraordinary human rights, political and socio- economic crises. At this critical juncture, it is worth re-visiting and re-imagining the type of country Myanmar could be. Federalism has long been considered as the solution to the country’s protracted state- society and centre-periphery conflicts and to enable ethnic minority communities to achieve self-determination. However, discussions about federalism are often framed in terms of revising or replacing the 2008 Constitution in a top-down manner. While constitutional change is necessary, federalism can also be seen as an “emergent” phenomenon, developing from the “bottom-up” out of the existing structures and practices of the ethnic minority communities and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). Several EAOs have long-established governance regimes in their areas of control or influence, delivering a range of essential and life-saving public services to their communities. These local frameworks of public administration and services provision can serve as important building blocks of a bottom-up federalism, especially given the collapse of a credible and legitimate Myanmar state. As such, EAOs should be supported to develop their governance and services delivery systems. Arguably, the present multiple crises in Myanmar offers the closest approximation since the 1947 Panglong Conference of the idea that a federal union should emerge out of agreements among sovereign states, i.e. that state formation (and sovereignty) must precede a federal constitutional settlement.