Coral Reef Bleaching under Climate Change: Prediction Modeling and Machine Learning

Abstract

The coral reefs are important ecosystems to protect underwater life and coastal areas. It is also a natural attraction that attracts many tourists to eco-tourism under the sea. However, the impact of climate change has led to coral reef bleaching and elevated mortality rates. Thus, this paper modeled and predicted coral reef bleaching under climate change by using machine learning techniques to provide the data to support coral reefs protection. Supervised machine learning was used to predict the level of coral damage based on previous information, while unsupervised machine learning was applied to model the coral reef bleaching area and discovery knowledge of the relationship among bleaching factors. In supervised machine learning, three widely used algorithms were included: Naïve Bayes, support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree. The accuracy of classifying coral reef bleaching under climate change was compared between these three models. Unsupervised machine learning based on a clustering technique was used to group similar characteristics of coral reef bleaching. Then, the correlation between bleaching conditions and characteristics was examined. We used a 5-year dataset obtained from the Department of Marine and Coastal Resources, Thailand, during 2013–2018. The results showed that SVM was the most effective classification model with 88.85% accuracy, followed by decision tree and Naïve Bayes that achieved 80.25% and 71.34% accuracy, respectively. In unsupervised machine learning, coral reef characteristics were clustered into six groups, and we found that seawater pH and sea surface temperature correlated with coral reef bleaching.