ผลกระทบของการแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัสโคโรนา 2019 (โควิด-19) ต่อตลาดทุนไทย

Abstract

This research examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on Thailand's capital market in both the whole market and by industry include Agro and Food Industry, Consumer Products Industry, Financials Industry, Industrials Industry, Property and Construction Industry, Resources Industry, Services Industry and Technology Industry, using a Vector Autoregressive model and estimation techniques Rolling-Window. The study divides the data into four time periods starting from January 1, 2019, to December 30, 2020, to examine the comparative impact of the pandemic. According to the results, COVID-19 had a positive effect on the market during a certain period, but negatively affected the capital market overall. It also found that the pandemic had the most negative impact on Thailand's capital market during the period from 12 March to 10 May 2020, when the outbreak was announced around the world. This led to heavily negative correlations between many industries in the capital market as COVID-19 prevention measures were imposed. However, some industries have benefited from the pandemic. In addition, the pandemic could create opportunities for investors in the short term. Investors should invest carefully, and adjust or diversify their portfolios as appropriate according to the situation. However, investors should avoid investing in Financials Industry, Property and Construction Industry, Resources Industry and Services Industry, which is slow to recover and invest in moderately affected industries such as Food Industry, Consumer Products Industry, Financials Industry, Industrials Industry and Services Industry.