Causal statistics of structural dependence space-based trend simulations for the coalition of rice exporters: the cases of India, Thailand, and Vietnam

Abstract

This paper is a contribution seeking an econometric solution for the mathematical problem known as a cooperative game. The theoretical coalition of world major rice exporters includes India, Thailand, and Vietnam. In terms of methodological processes, yearly time-series variables (2008–2018) such as the values of rice production, rice consumption, and rice exporting profits are observed. The causal model is employed to clarify three mixed approaches. The first is the structural dependent analysis based on Bayesian statistics referred to as the ‘Bayesian copula’. The empirical results confirm that these three countries have deep structural dependences in the market. In the second method, the trends of observed variables are predicted by the Bayesian structural time-series model. The last section is the ‘Shapley value’ with coalition scenarios. Optimised results causally prove that rice exporting profits are a double increment when cooperative behaviours continuously exist. Hence, the potential outcomes framework is to finally recognise the Organization of Rice Exporting Countries (OREC).