Evaluation and projection of changes in temperature over northern thailand based on CMIP5 models

Abstract

© 2019, Thai Society of Higher Eduation Institutes on Environment. All rights reserved. This study evaluates changes of temperature using the sixth selected statistical downscaling CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The analyses are focused over northern Thailand during the years 1970-2005 to ensure higher reliability in the observations, and during the years 2006-2099 to project future temperature changes. Overall, the selected CMIP5 models reproduce the observed monthly temperatures well with some slightly cold biases. The future projection indicates seasonal warming over northern Thailand. The increases in both projected maximum and minimum temperatures are higher under RCP8.5 scenario compared to that under RCP4.5 scenario.