Thailand Green GDP assessment based on environmentally extended input-output model

Abstract

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Green GDP is an indicator of economic growth with the environmental impact on that growth factored into the traditional GDP. This study aims to develop a Green GDP model for Thailand using the EIO-LCA method. Green GDP is calculated by subtracting environmental costs from the traditional GDP. Environmental cost can be further divided into three components based on the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) which include depletion cost, degradation cost and defensive cost. Life cycle assessment is a tool for evaluating the environmental impact which, in this study, focuses on GHG emissions. The total direct GHG emissions for Thailand are calculated for 1990–2020 based on the 2006 IPCC guidelines and Thailand public statistical data for each economic sector. It was found that the amount of GHG emissions are 242–459 million tonnes CO2eq/yr which come from 10 economic sectors, comprised of agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refinery, power generation, gas separation, construction, commercial, residential and transportation. More than 80% of the total direct emissions come from four sectors: manufacturing (28%), power generation (26%), transportation (16%) and agriculture (15%). The portion of total GHG emissions (direct and indirect emissions) contributions is different from direct GHG emissions because the proportion of emissions from upstream processes in each sector is different. The portion of total GHG emissions of manufacturing, agriculture, transportation and residential are 60%, 22%, 13% and 5% respectively. The total Thailand Green GDP is consolidated from the results of each sector's Green GDP. The difference between Thailand's GDP and Green GDP is about 2% due to the degradation cost of GHG emissions with variability in the ratio of GDP to Green GDP across different sectors. The forecast of Green GDP by sector for 2015–2020 can be used as business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios to support policy making as well as the NAMA and INDC Action Plan for Thailand.