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Title: Simulating stakeholder-based land-use change scenarios and their implication on above-ground carbon and environmental management in Northern Thailand
Authors: Melvin Lippe
Thomas Hilger
Sureeporn Sudchalee
Naruthep Wechpibal
Attachai Jintrawet
Georg Cadisch
Keywords: Environmental Science
Issue Date: 1-Dec-2017
Abstract: © 2017 by the authors. The objective of this study was to examine whether the coupling of a land-use change (LUC) model with a carbon-stock accounting approach and participatory procedures can be beneficial in a data-limited environment to derive implications for environmental management. Stakeholder-based LUC scenarios referring to different storylines of agricultural intensification and reforestation were simulated to explore their impact on above-ground carbon (AGC) for a period of twenty years (2009-2029). The watershed of Mae Sa Mai, Northern Thailand was used as a case study for this purpose. Coupled model simulations revealed that AGC stocks could be increased by up to 1.7 Gg C through expansion of forests or orchard areas. A loss of up to 0.4 Gg C would occur if vegetable production continue to expand at the expense of orchard and fallow areas. The coupled model approach was useful due to its moderate data demands, enabling the comparison of land-use types differing in AGC build-up rates and rotation times. The scenario analysis depicted clear differences in the occurrence of LUC hotspots, highlighting the importance of assessing the impact of potential future LUC pathways at the landscape level. The use of LUC scenarios based on local stakeholder scenarios offer a higher credibility for climate mitigation strategies but also underline the need to co-design policy frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of stakeholder needs and environmental management frameworks.
ISSN: 2073445X
Appears in Collections:CMUL: Journal Articles

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