Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/57212
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dc.contributor.authorEakkapong Duangdaien_US
dc.contributor.authorChulin Likasirien_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-05T03:36:34Z-
dc.date.available2018-09-05T03:36:34Z-
dc.date.issued2017-03-01en_US
dc.identifier.issn01698095en_US
dc.identifier.other2-s2.0-84994032732en_US
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.019en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=84994032732&origin=inwarden_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/jspui/handle/6653943832/57212-
dc.description.abstract© 2016 Elsevier B.V. In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973–2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.en_US
dc.subjectEarth and Planetary Sciencesen_US
dc.titleRainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailanden_US
dc.typeJournalen_US
article.title.sourcetitleAtmospheric Researchen_US
article.volume185en_US
article.stream.affiliationsChiang Mai Universityen_US
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