ผลกระทบจากวิกฤตเศรษฐกิจของประเทศญี่ปุ่นและเอเชียที่มีต่อการเคลื่อนย้ายการลงทุนทางตรงจากประเทศญี่ปุ่นสู่ประเทศในอาเซียน 4 และ 3 ประเทศอุตสาหกรรมใหม่

Abstract

This research aims to study the influence that Japanese foreign direct investment had during the Japanese Financial Crisis in 1990 and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 by observing macroeconomic variables. The study evaluated from quantitative and descriptive study. This study employs the panel data, which is the dataset of ASEAN4 (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippine) during 1980 – 2010 and NIEs3 (Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea) during 1970 – 2010. Panel cointegration and panel equation testing are applied to this study. According to Westerlund test, the result of Panel cointegration test in ASEAN4 shows that the exchange rate of host country (EXC) and the inflation rate of host country (INF) are significantly related with Japanese foreign direct investment in long term. Moreover, group testing shows that at least a country in ASEAN4 has the variables on government expenditure and the number of population are significantly related with Japanese foreign direct investment. The result of panel cointegration in NIEs3 shows that the exchange rate of host country (EXC), the inflation rate of host country (INF), the government expenditure (GOVEXP), the number of population of host country (POP) and exchange rate parabola (EXCSC) are significantly related with Japanese foreign direct investment in the long term. For the result of panel equation testing, the random effect is efficient and appropriate to estimate both the models of ASEAN4 and NIEs3.

The results of panel equation testing in ASEAN4 show that the exchange rates of the host countries are significantly negative with Japanese foreign direct investment due to Japanese multinational corporations having the ability to reduce production costs from the depreciation of exchange rates in their host country. Another contributing factor is after the Japanese Financial Crisis in 1990, the Japanese Yen continuously appreciated after the Plaza accord.Since 1990, there have been many Japanese foreign direct investments. Moreover, the government expenditure of the host countries are significantly positivewith the Japanese foreign direct investment because raises in government expenditure can stimulus the economy, making the Japanese more attractive to foreign direct investment. On the other hand, with foreign direct investment, the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 showed negative results in regards to foreign direct investment. The results of panel equation testing in NIEs3 show that the Japanese Financial Crisis in 1990 and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 has a significantly negative effect on the Japanese foreign direct investment. The reason why businesses came to invest in NIEs3 was based on the different conditions that were occurring at those times. Moreover, at that time, NIEs3’s currency appreciated againstthe Yen lead to Japanese foreigndirect investment flow into ASAEN4. From the study, we recommend government to focus on the stability of exchange rate because instability of exchange rate will increase the risks in business sectors in the country especially entrepreneurs who are involves in foreign exchange transactions such as exporters and importers. Furthermore, the government should spend some amount of expenditure in physical development, such as build roads or bridges because this improvement could be attracted the foreign investors to do some business in the country. This could be a significant resource lead to the growth of multinational foreign direct investments. In time of economic expansion, government should state strong policy to prevent any risks for the financial sectors and enact regulation to slow down the inflows or outflows of short term capital.